Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e88…0793 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$399 (-17%) realized −$395 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$120
crypto 40% +$598
sports 6% −$128
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.4% -12.6% 29% 29% -13.2%
≤30d 24 -3.4% -12.6% 29% 29% -13.2%
≤90d 27 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 30% +4.7%
all 27 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 30% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 30% +4.7%
10% -17.5% 30% -5.3%
15% -25.5% 30% -14.5%
20% -32.8% 30% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$70 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$395
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage79d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $177 +$340 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $211 +$167 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$221 +469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$70 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$37 +281%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-04-12? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 24 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 24 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-12? Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 66 million or more views on day 3? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $121 +$252 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $55 +$121 +222%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 25 $8 −$4 -51%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $49 −$40 -82%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $200 +$474 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $163 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $211 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $87 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $109 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $176 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $54 3h
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 29¢ $54 59d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 60d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 60d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 60d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? SELL No 7¢ $9 60d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 39¢ $49 60d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 37¢ $292 60d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $120 66d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $156 66d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $674 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.25 · official $46.25 (match) · 64 history records