Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e86…6dfb sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,598 (+2%) realized +$1,916 · open −$318
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%37W / 42L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$864per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$818est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,831
7 days+$1,831
14 days+$1,831
30 days+$1,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,834
crypto 1% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 44% -4.6%
≤30d 24 -13.6% -21.8% 46% 42% -6.7%
≤90d 49 +24.6% +12.8% 47% 37% -6.8%
all 79 +5.1% -4.9% 47% 34% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 34% -6.4%
10% -14.0% 27% -15.4%
15% -22.3% 23% -23.6%
20% -30.0% 20% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$947) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$280 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,663
Realized+$1,916
Unrealized−$318
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses37 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$818
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage92d
Avg bet$864
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Teodora Kostovic 37¢ 31¢ $1,981 $1,663 −$318 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska Jun 24 $1,378 +$101 +7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 24 $2,904 +$1,092 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $6,409 −$20 -0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $947 +$538 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $1,634 −$36 -2%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $230 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $81 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $113 +$26 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $4,219 +$617 +15%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $1,936 +$326 +17%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $2,146 +$2,142 +100%
Set 1 Winner: Sasnovich vs Dunne Jun 23 $1,442 −$1,442 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $3,831 +$1,926 +50%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $2,253 −$2,253 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens Jun 23 $1,243 −$881 -71%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $985 +$1,749 +178%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova Jun 23 $996 −$979 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $989 −$989 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 04 $39 +$9 +23%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $19 +$32 +169%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $675 −$670 -99%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $240 −$99 -41%
Penguins vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5 Apr 13 $587 +$494 +84%
Sarasota: Yibing Wu vs Stefan Dostanic Apr 12 $1,003 −$49 -5%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs UNiTY esports (BO1) - Conquest of Prague Apr 12 $201 +$34 +17%
Campinas: Gonzalo Bueno vs Gustavo Heide Apr 12 $886 +$64 +7%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $1,140 +$55 +5%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Hashiras - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $570 −$117 -20%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Hashiras - Map 2 Winner Apr 12 $180 −$168 -93%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Pedro Martinez Apr 12 $552 +$81 +15%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 12 $20 −$19 -97%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Liam Draxl vs Alexis Mar 29 $812 −$812 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Alex Bolt vs Andres Mar 29 $440 +$374 +85%
Copa Colsanitas, Qualification: Miriana Tona vs Lia Karatancheva Mar 29 $261 −$261 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Mar 27 $2,072 +$120 +6%
Sao Paulo: Juan Carlos Prado vs Gonzalo Bueno Mar 27 $848 +$76 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Mar 27 $712 +$451 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Mar 27 $1,126 +$273 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Mar 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South Ame Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner Mar 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Back to Back vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner Mar 27 $240 −$105 -44%
Miami Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs Rebels Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 27 $70 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Mar 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 25 $400 +$16 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 27¢ $459 3m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 38¢ $735 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 45¢ $6 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 45¢ $142 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 45¢ $50 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 45¢ $58 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 45¢ $549 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 45¢ $5 4m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska SELL Lina Gjorcheska 100¢ $1,479 36m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 93¢ $5 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 93¢ $16 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 93¢ $704 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 93¢ $13 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 93¢ $16 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 93¢ $279 48m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Francisca Jorge vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 93¢ $345 49m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $3,996 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Petra Marcinko 72¢ $2,904 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng SELL Michael Zheng 67¢ $5,811 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng SELL Michael Zheng 81¢ $579 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $4 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $68 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $6 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $3,716 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $68 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $5 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $6 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $8 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 68¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,663.02 · official $1,582.56 · 581 history records