Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9E 0x9e86…fe2c other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$928 (-52%) realized −$928 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$198per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$16

7 days+$53

14 days+$53

30 days+$53

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-18.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+62.1%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+28.0%
≤30d	3	+62.1%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+28.0%
≤90d	3	+62.1%	+46.6%	100%	100%	+28.0%
all	8	-10.0%	-18.5%	50%	50%	-57.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.5%	50%	-57.1%
10%	-26.3%	38%	-61.2%
15%	-33.5%	25%	-64.9%
20%	-40.0%	25%	-68.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +41% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$240 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.06 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage

Net worth$70

Realized−$928

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage602d

Avg bet$198

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5	Under	95¢	95¢	$70	$70	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$57	+$16	+27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$49	+$8	+16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-	Jun 21	$20	+$29	+143%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?	Nov 06	$22	−$22	-100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$13	+$9	+69%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024?	Nov 02	$598	−$598	-100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?	Nov 02	$934	−$323	-35%
2024 October hottest on record?	Nov 01	$18	−$18	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	95¢	$70	1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$57	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$49	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-	BUY	40¢	$20	7d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?	BUY Yes	46¢	$22	597d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	597d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	59¢	$13	597d
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024?	BUY Yes	61¢	$598	601d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?	SELL Yes	40¢	$611	601d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024?	BUY Yes	61¢	$934	602d
2024 October hottest on record?	BUY Yes	33¢	$18	602d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.00 · official $70.00 (match) · 14 history records