Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9e86…ab0d crypto 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$576 (-1%) realized −$576 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate82%116W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$78
economics 18% −$9
crypto 5% −$115
politics 1% −$368
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 141 -7.9% -16.7% 82% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 6% -10.5%
10% -24.6% 4% -19.1%
15% -31.9% 3% -26.9%
20% -38.6% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$24 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses116 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage587d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? May 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? Feb 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 January 5-11? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 24? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on November 4? Nov 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on November 4? Nov 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 04 $26 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.50 October 6-12? Oct 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12? Oct 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12? Oct 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Solana dip to $160 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 02 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in September? Oct 02 $40 $0 +0%
Solana above $180 on September 5? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Solana dip to 170 September 1–7? Sep 19 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 1–7? Sep 19 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $102K on September 5? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? Sep 04 $4 $0 +6%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Sep 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 04 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $113K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Aug 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin above $116000 on August 13? Aug 24 $17 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $50 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $60 78d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 102d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $70 120d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $70 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 141d
Will Solana dip to $90 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $30 165d
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $40 165d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 165d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 198d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $60 198d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $43 210d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $23 212d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 212d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $18 232d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 99¢ $20 232d
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on November 4? BUY No 97¢ $13 232d
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? BUY No 100¢ $11 232d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $24 232d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $22 232d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $31 253d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 98¢ $26 253d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $26 253d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 99¢ $25 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.99 · official $110.99 (match) · 297 history records