Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9e86…cbb5 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$43 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$29
other 16% −$14
tech 9% −$3
sports 8% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -5.4%
≤30d 12 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -5.4%
≤90d 12 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -5.4%
all 12 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 33% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 25% -14.5%
15% -37.6% 25% -22.7%
20% -43.7% 25% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$45 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 66¢ 64¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 62¢ 56¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $156 +$226 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$46 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$116 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $110 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $185 −$17 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $383 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $72 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $220 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 40m
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 66¢ $112 44m
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.36 · official $320.77 (match) · 34 history records