Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e83…4852 crypto 286 markets active 2d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-5%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate70%199W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$96
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$126
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +12.5% +1.8% 85% 53% -11.3%
≤30d 283 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 41% -15.5%
≤90d 283 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 41% -15.5%
all 283 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 41% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 41% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 23% -23.6%
15% -27.6% 13% -31.0%
20% -34.7% 9% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses199 / 84
Open positions3
Markets (closed)283 / 286
History coverage20d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $68 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.21 · official $5.21 (match) · 728 history records