trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $7 | +$2 (+41%) |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? | No | 68¢ | 69¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? | No | 67¢ | 66¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? | No | 62¢ | 61¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? | No | 70¢ | 68¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $3 | $2 | −$1 (-21%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju | Jun 12 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $4 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju | Jun 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju | Jun 10 | $5 | +$2 | +45% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju | Jun 09 | $5 | +$2 | +30% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju | Jun 08 | $5 | +$2 | +35% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju | Jun 08 | $5 | +$3 | +56% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | Jun 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju | Jun 06 | $5 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju | Jun 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma | Jun 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca | Jun 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May? | Jun 03 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Jun 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju | Jun 02 | $5 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May? | Jun 01 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? | Jun 01 | $12 | +$5 | +44% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca | Jun 01 | $5 | +$2 | +36% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma | May 29 | $4 | +$1 | +28% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma | May 24 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May | May 23 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on May 22? | May 23 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be 54°F or higher on May 22? | May 22 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -15.1% | -23.1% | 64% | 64% | -24.9% |
| ≤30d | 26 | -35.6% | -41.8% | 50% | 42% | -33.4% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -35.6% | -41.8% | 50% | 42% | -33.4% |
| all | 26 | -35.6% | -41.8% | 50% | 42% | -33.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.8% | 42% | -33.4% |
| 10% | -47.3% | 38% | -39.7% |
| 15% | -52.4% | 15% | -45.6% |
| 20% | -57.1% | 4% | -50.9% |