Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9e7e…3e1d
economics · 97 markets active 1d ago
5.0score
+$88,863 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$77,048 · open +$12,672
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$178,769
Realized+$77,048
Unrealized+$12,672
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses64 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)88 / 97
History coverage238d
Avg bet$4,737
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 9 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9,345
14 days+$35,154
30 days+$36,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $56,227 $58,048 +$1,820 (+3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 49¢ 77¢ $34,406 $53,866 +$19,460 (+57%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 68¢ $55,228 $47,600 −$7,628 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 57¢ $11,640 $11,500 −$140 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 53¢ 48¢ $7,568 $6,754 −$813 (-11%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 77¢ 79¢ $462 $474 +$12 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 26¢ $280 $255 −$25 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 37¢ 35¢ $188 $175 −$12 (-7%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $45,720 +$3,768 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 07 $391 +$17 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $10,106 +$5,460 +54%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 06 $63 +$18 +28%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 06 $1,010 +$83 +8%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $479 +$114 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1,400 +$180 +13%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $29,906 +$6,765 +23%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $273 +$126 +46%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $561 +$255 +45%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 03 $24 −$4 -19%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $559 +$99 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $420 +$190 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $70,223 +$17,804 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $720 +$280 +39%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? May 27 $243 +$196 +80%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? May 22 $385 +$135 +35%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju May 19 $504 +$130 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $810 +$140 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $810 +$150 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $890 +$110 +12%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $1,078 +$377 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $953 +$47 +5%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $10 −$7 -69%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $1,100 +$6 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 15 $242 +$858 +354%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $240 −$240 -100%
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $521 −$521 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Mar 26 $87 +$32 +37%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Mar 25 $1,121 +$43 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Mar 23 $4,281 +$2,420 +56%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Mar 20 $8 −$2 -27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 19 $4,590 +$1,641 +36%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 18 $215 +$250 +117%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $83 −$4 -5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 17 $255 −$96 -38%
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Mar 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $100 +$27 +27%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academ Mar 16 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $100 +$54 +54%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $100 +$115 +115%
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $100 +$427 +426%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Mar 16 $13 +$1 +10%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca Mar 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 16 $100 +$98 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% +$21,820
economics 17% +$50,431
politics 17% +$8,404
other 5% +$8,263
crypto 0% +$185
culture 0% +$617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY Yes 33¢ $3 28h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY Yes 30¢ $3 29h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 77¢ $467 34h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY Yes 30¢ $95 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $2,635 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4,431 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $255 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $278 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3,365 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2,844 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $57 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $85 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $78 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.6% +9.1% 100% 40% +5.2%
≤30d 24 +27.3% +15.2% 92% 79% +10.2%
≤90d 50 +31.0% +18.5% 80% 64% +11.1%
all 88 +37.6% +24.5% 73% 53% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.5% 53% +15.5%
10% ← realistic here +12.6% 44% +4.5%
15% +1.7% 28% -5.6%
20% -8.3% 19% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178,768.97 · official $178,768.97 (match) · 3500 history records