Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:24:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e7d…cc85 world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$4
sports 23% −$14
other 10% +$3
economics 9% +$1
politics 2% +$1
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 33 -1.9% -11.2% 27% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 46 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 4% -9.8%
all 67 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 10% -10.1%
10% -18.1% 6% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 4% -26.6%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage528d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $30 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $31 −$1 -2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $69 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $34 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $35 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $34 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $94 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $34 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $28 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $27 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $67 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $217 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $217 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $38 −$5 -13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $21 +$4 +18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $217 +$1 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 06 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $31 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $30 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $8 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $30 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $34 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $34 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $13 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $35 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $31 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records