Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e7c…1d04 crypto 628 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%276W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$8
14 days+$6
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -9.4% -18.0% 65% 57% -16.9%
≤30d 627 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 43% -10.0%
≤90d 627 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 43% -10.0%
all 627 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 43% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 43% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 43% -18.6%
15% -27.8% 39% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 36% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses276 / 351
Open positions1
Markets (closed)627 / 628
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 330 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.94 (match) · 945 history records