Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9e7b…7964
other · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage312d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 2 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Mar 30 $33 −$16 -50%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Jan 30 $10 −$1 -9%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will a dozen eggs be below $3.25 in July? Aug 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $22 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 08 $40 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% −$17
world 29% −$2
politics 15% $0
economics 8% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $8 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $8 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $1 16h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $38 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $38 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $36 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $37 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 8d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 75d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 133d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.5% -11.8% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -8.0% -16.7% 12% 0% -15.1%
all 38 -1.8% -11.2% 18% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -11.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.39 · official $36.36 (match) · 301 history records