Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e7a…1eec sports 400 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,309 (-4%) realized −$19,948 · open −$361
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%131W / 261L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,278per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$4,550est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5,971now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,880
7 days−$4,368
14 days−$177
30 days+$4,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$9,936
other 6% +$67
world 5% −$1,490
culture 1% −$397
politics 1% −$130
finance 0% +$202
economics 0% −$191
crypto 0% +$694
weather 0% −$29
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -12.6% -20.9% 39% 33% -16.9%
≤30d 94 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 41% -6.0%
≤90d 305 -4.5% -13.6% 34% 29% -12.1%
all 392 -3.8% -13.0% 33% 25% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 25% -11.5%
10% -21.3% 19% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -28.9% 15% -27.7%
20% -35.9% 11% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,470) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$418 vs −$264 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$5,971
Realized−$19,948
Unrealized−$361
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses131 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$4,550
Open positions7
Markets (closed)392 / 400
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$1,278
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $1,245 $1,328 +$82 (+7%)
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Bia Mesquita 84¢ 82¢ $1,000 $975 −$25 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $1,000 $946 −$54 (-5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 34¢ $1,250 $912 −$338 (-27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $787 $857 +$70 (+9%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 49¢ 47¢ $550 $528 −$22 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $500 $425 −$74 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $309 −$29 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $400 −$81 -20%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,106 +$196 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,516 +$765 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,012 +$437 +14%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5,548 −$5,500 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,019 −$229 -6%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 16 $404 −$327 -81%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $456 +$334 +73%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $336 −$336 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $557 −$557 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $715 −$715 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $406 −$305 -75%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $366 −$190 -52%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $461 −$80 -17%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $355 +$332 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $404 +$202 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,006 +$188 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $554 +$151 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $523 −$20 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $507 +$402 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $503 +$130 +26%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$65 -63%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $205 +$182 +89%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 +$334 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7,747 −$104 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,887 +$1,558 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $355 −$355 -100%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 14 $187 −$3 -1%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 13 $73 −$11 -15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $405 −$17 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$386 +76%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $58 −$32 -55%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Pedro Neto be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Andrés Gómez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -35%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $709 −$709 -100%
Will Cucho Hernández be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Juan Portilla be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -70%
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 12 $12 −$9 -81%
Will Diogo Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $48 −$10 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $1,052 −$348 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,280 −$704 -55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,634 +$38 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $508 +$319 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $255 10m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $280 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $319 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 16h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 84¢ $1,005 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $400 16h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,302 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1,000 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $2,281 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,516 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $3,012 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $3,026 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $3,791 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $2,522 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $4,019 23h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? SELL No 17¢ $77 32h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $102 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $406 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $176 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $366 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $381 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $557 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $456 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $355 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 66¢ $404 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,194 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,970.69 · official $5,971.94 (match) · 3500 history records