Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e7a…7ec0 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$3
other 26% +$2
sports 8% $0
politics 8% +$1
crypto 5% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +1.5% -8.2% 19% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 16 +1.5% -8.2% 19% 6% -10.1%
all 58 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage477d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 -7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $83 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $33 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $49 −$3 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $49 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $3 +$1 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 01 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? May 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 10? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $14 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 06 $2 +$3 +117%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $12 $0 -2%
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian ele Apr 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $12 $0 +4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $37 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $40 32h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $46 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $46 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $44 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.80 · official $41.80 (match) · 188 history records