Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9e7a…0be4 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$10
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$8
politics 15% $0
other 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% $0
weather 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 16 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 19% -8.5%
≤90d 16 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 19% -8.5%
all 42 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 10% -9.0%
10% -16.1% 5% -17.7%
15% -24.2% 2% -25.6%
20% -31.6% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage303d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $102 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $53 +$6 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $49 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +26%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $137 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Aug 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $40 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 21 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Au Aug 21 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 20 $1 $0 +14%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $56 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $56 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $24 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $43 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $58 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $58 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records