Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9e78…6f5f crypto 240 markets active 8d ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,647 (-12%) realized −$2,647 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%133W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$2,624
crypto 17% −$99
sports 5% +$74
economics 1% +$8
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -26.1% -33.1% 50% 0% -6.3%
≤90d 4 -26.1% -33.1% 50% 0% -6.3%
all 240 +3.3% -6.6% 55% 43% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 43% -20.0%
10% -15.5% 34% -27.7%
15% -23.7% 31% -34.7%
20% -31.2% 26% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$29 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,647
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses133 / 107
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage230d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $133 −$26 -20%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,103 +$100 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Feb 06 $79 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 21 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 03 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $110 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $3,408 −$2,019 -59%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $13,497 −$243 -2%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $508 −$335 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $123 +$8 +6%
Heat vs. Mavericks Dec 09 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 01 $0 $0 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 01 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 05 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 05 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 05 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Nov 05 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 05 $70 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Nov 05 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Nov 05 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 05 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Nov 05 $6 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Nov 05 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Nov 04 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Nov 04 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 04 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Nov 04 $18 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Nov 04 $32 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Nov 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 04 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 04 $17 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 04 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 04 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Nov 04 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Nov 04 $38 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 04 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Nov 04 $44 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 04 $60 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 04 $57 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Nov 04 $32 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 8d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $107 8d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 8d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $133 8d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 91¢ $1,103 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? BUY Up 79¢ $79 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 155d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 11¢ $1,389 177d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL No 0¢ $293 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 806 history records