Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e78…22db world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$123 (-6%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$20
politics 13% +$1
other 13% −$83
sports 6% −$19
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 29 -3.8% -12.9% 28% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 32 -3.4% -12.6% 28% 0% -10.6%
all 54 -15.1% -23.2% 28% 6% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 6% -14.7%
10% -30.6% 6% -22.9%
15% -37.3% 2% -30.3%
20% -43.4% 2% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage549d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $36 −$5 -13%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $320 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $59 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $37 −$6 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $43 −$2 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $7 −$1 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 −$2 -48%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $249 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $250 −$1 -0%
Holy Cross vs. Colgate Feb 27 $7 −$7 -100%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Mercer vs. East Tennessee State Feb 26 $6 $0 +0%
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $86 −$80 -93%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Feb 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 03 $13 $0 +3%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 18 $11 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 12 $31 −$13 -42%
Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024? Jan 11 $18 $0 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Jan 06 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? Dec 31 $17 $0 -1%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Pelicans Dec 23 $8 +$3 +33%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Dec 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $25 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $27 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $18 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $8 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.19 · official $25.27 (match) · 186 history records