Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:50:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e77…303f sports 1231 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,128 (-15%) realized −$2,124 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%613W / 613L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$17
14 days−$98
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$192
crypto 31% −$68
other 11% +$24
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 481 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 48% -8.3%
≤30d 814 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 47% -12.0%
≤90d 1226 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 47% -11.0%
all 1226 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 47% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 47% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 44% -19.5%
15% -27.8% 38% -27.3%
20% -34.9% 31% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$2,124
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses613 / 613
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1226 / 1231
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 15¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$4 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$3 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.56 · official $45.65 (match) · 3500 history records