Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9E 0x9e76…d847 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$11 (-30%) realized −$12 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip

Net edge-74%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-73.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-70.3%	-73.1%	0%	0%	-56.0%
≤30d	3	-70.3%	-73.1%	0%	0%	-56.0%
≤90d	3	-70.3%	-73.1%	0%	0%	-56.0%
all	3	-70.3%	-73.1%	0%	0%	-56.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-73.1%	0%	-56.0%
10%	-75.7%	0%	-60.2%
15%	-78.1%	0%	-64.1%
20%	-80.2%	0%	-67.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -51% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -70% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$4 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$11

Realized−$12

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$11	$11	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$13	−$1	-11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$11	−$10	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$12	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	65¢	$12	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$13	4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$11	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.01 · official $11.01 (match) · 5 history records