Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e75…c33f crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%18W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,485per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$17
world 0% +$24
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +1.7% -7.9% 100% 11% -5.6%
all 20 +0.9% -8.7% 90% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 5% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×92.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×833.47 per $1 lost it wins $833.47
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses18 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage151d
Avg bet$2,485
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 05 $78 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 04 $79 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 07 $179 +$24 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 20 $337 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $35,615 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 15 $14,611 +$15 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 03 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 3 Feb 03 $116 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 25 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 41d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 99¢ $78 43d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 56d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 67d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 99¢ $79 69d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $179 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $179 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $159 96d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5,765 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9,950 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $181 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $441 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $274 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8,882 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,058 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,097 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $557 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,557 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $625 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.26 · official $117.26 (match) · 93 history records