Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e6e…2c9b sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$247 (-13%) realized −$237 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$268
14 days−$262
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$74
other 28% −$104
crypto 4% −$58
world 2% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -30.9% -37.4% 42% 42% -24.4%
≤30d 70 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 43% -23.9%
≤90d 70 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 43% -23.9%
all 70 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 43% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 43% -23.9%
10% -42.4% 36% -31.2%
15% -47.9% 31% -37.9%
20% -53.0% 24% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$237
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)70 / 78
History coverage8d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 +$50 +90%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 +$50 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 +$75 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 +$43 +93%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $71 +$28 +40%
Rainbow Six Siege: Titan Esports Club vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN Lea Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $126 −$126 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$20 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 13 $30 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Detonate (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 13 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 13 $60 +$16 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $35 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $65 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $26 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $56 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $25 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $41 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $15 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $25 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $41 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $39 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.07 · official $169.07 (match) · 171 history records