Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
9E 0x9e6e…ddd3 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$157 (+23%) realized +$118 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$104
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$5
sports 34% +$120
crypto 21% +$26
tech 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +40.7% +27.3% 33% 33% +44.4%
≤30d 10 +18.1% +6.8% 30% 30% +15.9%
≤90d 10 +18.1% +6.8% 30% 30% +15.9%
all 10 +18.1% +6.8% 30% 30% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 30% +15.9%
10% -3.4% 30% +4.8%
15% -12.7% 20% -5.3%
20% -21.3% 20% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$11 · ×5.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage11d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Argentina $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 +$49 +238%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $56 +$108 +193%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 −$7 -33%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$7 -35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$8 -19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$7 -18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $21 −$11 -51%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $113 +$12 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina $51 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $51 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 31h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 29¢ $20 34h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 87¢ $165 34h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 27¢ $26 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $31 35h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 30¢ $5 35h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 31¢ $26 35h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 35h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 42h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $13 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $33 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $31 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes $10 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes $21 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $95 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.25 · official $319.44 (match) · 44 history records