Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9e6a…305a crypto 1573 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$267 (+5%) realized +$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%714W / 521L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day239.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,086
7 days−$814
14 days+$856
30 days+$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,973
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (239 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 572 -39.9% -45.6% 34% 34% -49.4%
≤30d 1235 +20.3% +8.8% 58% 55% +7.1%
≤90d 1235 +20.3% +8.8% 58% 55% +7.1%
all 1235 +20.3% +8.8% 58% 55% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover239.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 55% +7.1%
10% ← realistic here -1.6% 55% -3.1%
15% -11.1% 55% -12.5%
20% -19.8% 51% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses714 / 521
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1235 / 1573
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day239.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 3500 history records