Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e69…01b0 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-10%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$36
politics 39% −$14
tech 10% −$36
crypto 1% −$5
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.4% -23.4% 0% 0% -26.6%
≤30d 18 -14.9% -23.0% 0% 0% -25.2%
≤90d 18 -14.9% -23.0% 0% 0% -25.2%
all 43 -11.8% -20.2% 33% 12% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 12% -19.4%
10% -27.9% 7% -27.1%
15% -34.8% 5% -34.1%
20% -41.2% 2% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage630d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 20 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 19 $55 −$12 -22%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 18 $80 −$35 -44%
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Jun 15 $0 $0 -2%
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Jun 04 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? May 31 $7 −$3 -41%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? May 31 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? May 31 $11 −$4 -36%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c May 31 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? May 31 $12 $0 -3%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 -0%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange May 30 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market c May 29 $17 −$4 -26%
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? May 29 $4 −$1 -27%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 29 $7 $0 -3%
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close May 29 $24 −$5 -20%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 28 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 13? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 29? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 09 $1 $0 +39%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 30? Nov 03 $1 $0 +2%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 29? Oct 30 $1 $0 +3%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 28? Oct 29 $1 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28? Oct 29 $1 $0 +11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Oct 25 $1 $0 -10%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 16? Oct 17 $1 $0 +14%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 16? Oct 17 $1 $0 +32%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down - October 15 Oct 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 14 $15 −$12 -79%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Oct 09 $60 −$4 -7%
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Oct 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? Oct 09 $4 +$8 +194%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Oct 04 $53 −$1 -2%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 03 $60 $0 -1%
Bitcoin above $65,000 on October 4? Oct 02 $8 −$4 -56%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? Oct 02 $25 $0 +2%
Aleo airdrop by September 30? Oct 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Sep 30 $76 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $51 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 25¢ $36 1h
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 26¢ $11 1h
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 26¢ $50 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 26¢ $48 3h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 26¢ $50 3h
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 SELL No 22¢ $41 33h
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 SELL No 23¢ $2 33h
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY No 27¢ $55 33h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $80 2d
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated SELL Yes 20¢ $0 5d
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated BUY Yes 20¢ $0 5d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 23¢ $48 7d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 23¢ $50 7d
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? SELL No 42¢ $2 16d
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? BUY No 42¢ $2 16d
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? SELL No 42¢ $14 16d
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $15 16d
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 20d
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 20d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL No 51¢ $10 20d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY No 54¢ $11 20d
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL No 35¢ $4 20d
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL No 35¢ $3 20d
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 55¢ $11 20d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c SELL Yes 44¢ $9 20d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c BUY Yes 47¢ $9 20d
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 20d
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records