Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9e66…a1c0 world 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$2
other 26% −$2
finance 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 2 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 2 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
all 2 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)2 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 86¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $5 8m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 10m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 54m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 55m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 56m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 56m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 57m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 53¢ $16 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 52¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 51¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 51¢ $0 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 30¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.97 · official $272.97 (match) · 62 history records