Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e65…444c sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$604 (+18%) realized +$614 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$319
14 days+$34
30 days+$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$530
other 20% +$42
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.1% -3.1% 52% 48% +2.2%
≤30d 34 -10.4% -19.0% 38% 35% +6.7%
≤90d 34 -10.4% -19.0% 38% 35% +6.7%
all 34 -10.4% -19.0% 38% 35% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 35% +6.7%
10% -26.7% 35% -3.5%
15% -33.8% 35% -12.8%
20% -40.3% 29% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$68 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$614
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage18d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $96 $94 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 59¢ 55¢ $97 $89 −$7 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $98 +$87 +90%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $97 +$167 +172%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $190 +$431 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $97 +$106 +109%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $146 −$144 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $147 −$145 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $195 −$192 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $194 −$190 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 −$87 -89%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $98 +$56 +57%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $99 +$108 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $98 −$97 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? Jun 13 $57 +$1 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $99 +$104 +105%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $98 +$47 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $98 +$49 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $207 −$204 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $278 +$304 +109%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $30 −$29 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $196 −$194 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $13 −$1 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $59 −$58 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $438 +$545 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $98 21m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $98 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $97 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $98 15h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $2 22h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $5 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $14 22h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $14 22h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $5 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $24 22h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $24 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $190 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $146 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $147 36h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $97 39h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $195 39h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $194 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $11 39h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 47¢ $99 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $98 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 97¢ $57 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $98 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $98 2d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $98 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $98 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $197 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $278 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.05 · official $185.05 (match) · 92 history records