Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

9E 0x9e63…7e29 sports 714 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d ⚠

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$914 (+5%) realized +$648 · open +$266

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate25%222W / 673L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day21.2pace

Fees−$137est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-44.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	264	-78.3%	-80.3%	4%	4%	-38.8%
≤30d	313	-77.3%	-79.5%	6%	6%	-39.8%
≤90d	700	-42.3%	-47.8%	21%	21%	-24.8%
all	895	-39.1%	-44.9%	25%	23%	-25.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.2 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-44.9%	23%	-25.2%
10% ← realistic here	-50.2%	23%	-32.4%
15%	-55.0%	22%	-38.9%
20%	-59.4%	20%	-44.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

5% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late -62% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$18 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.7 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage

Net worth$763

Realized+$648

Unrealized+$266

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses222 / 673

Est. fees paid−$137

Open positions27

Markets (closed)895 / 714

History coverage152d ⚠

Avg bet$24

Trades / day21.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 27 History 895 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	10¢	72¢	$40	$288	+$248 (+621%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$126	$126	−$0 (-0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	85¢	88¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	No	20¢	32¢	$50	$81	+$31 (+62%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	4¢	$10	$32	+$22 (+221%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$31	$26	−$5 (-15%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$25	$20	−$5 (-21%)
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	1¢	3¢	$2	$10	+$8 (+417%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$10	$7	−$3 (-28%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-54%)
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	0¢	2¢	$1	$4	+$3 (+320%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$3	$2	−$2 (-50%)
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$3	$1	−$2 (-82%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$4 (-90%)
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-92%)
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-93%)
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-92%)
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-95%)
Will Max McGreevy win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-87%)
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-96%)
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-96%)
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-88%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 473 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Padres vs. Cubs	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Penguins vs. Red Wings	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-100%
Oilers vs. Capitals	Jun 21	$21	−$21	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Kings	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-100%
Marlins vs. Nationals	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Astros vs. Rangers	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-100%
Yankees vs. Orioles	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-100%
Yankees vs. Twins	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Mariners vs. Rays	Jun 21	$19	−$19	-100%
Islanders vs. Hurricanes	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Panthers vs. Lightning	Jun 21	$18	−$18	-100%
Orioles vs. Padres	Jun 21	$19	−$19	-100%
Bruins vs. Islanders	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-100%
Cubs vs. Brewers	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Braves vs. Tigers	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Stars vs. Kings	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Kraken vs. Hurricanes	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Mets vs. Reds	Jun 21	$11	−$11	-100%
Blue Jays vs. Royals	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Wild vs. Flyers	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-100%
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-100%
Senators vs. Utah	Jun 21	$23	−$23	-100%
Canucks vs. Blue Jackets	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Marlins vs. Rockies	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	Jun 21	$35	−$35	-100%
Lightning vs. Stars	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-100%
Kings vs. Wild	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Rays vs. Cubs	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Angels vs. Mariners	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Guardians vs. Red Sox	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Tigers vs. Marlins	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Vikings vs. Browns	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-100%
Ducks vs. Sabres	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Twins vs. Rangers	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Astros vs. Athletics	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Capitals vs. Canadiens	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Twins vs. Angels	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo	Jun 21	$3	−$3	-100%
Flames vs. Canadiens	Jun 21	$44	−$44	-100%
Blues vs. Flyers	Jun 21	$32	−$32	-100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2025 FedEx Cup?	Jun 21	$6	−$6	-100%
Senators vs. Flyers	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-100%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights	Jun 21	$11	−$11	-100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-100%
Mariners vs. Astros	Jun 21	$39	−$39	-100%
49ers vs. Rams	Jun 21	$29	−$29	-100%
Cardinals vs. Mariners	Jun 21	$17	−$17	-100%
Islanders vs. Predators	Jun 21	$21	−$21	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$3	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	42¢	$128	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	21h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	21h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	34¢	$36	21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	26h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$5	27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	28h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$2	2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$3	2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$2	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$3	3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	3d
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	3d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	3d
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.79 · official $762.79 (match) · 3500 history records