Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9e62…e999 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$50 (+25%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$36
sports 29% +$12
crypto 2% −$3
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.1% +26.8% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 4 +40.1% +26.8% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤90d 26 +41.4% +27.9% 46% 46% +31.4%
all 37 +38.1% +24.9% 38% 38% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.9% 38% +20.4%
10% +13.0% 32% +8.9%
15% +2.0% 32% -1.6%
20% -8.0% 27% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage251d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$18 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$17 +78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner Apr 09 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Apr 09 $2 +$1 +25%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Apr 09 $7 +$6 +79%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 09 $1 +$10 +1010%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner Apr 09 $1 +$3 +333%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs DOCISK - Game 2 Winner Apr 07 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs DOCISK (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Apr 07 $1 +$1 +89%
LoL: French Flair vs BIG - Game 2 Winner Apr 07 $1 +$3 +319%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Misa Esports (BO3) - EMEA Master Apr 07 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team Solid vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: 7REX vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season Apr 06 $2 −$1 -49%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winne Apr 06 $3 +$1 +42%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers L Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $2 +$6 +309%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
LAR vs. Panthers Nov 30 $2 +$5 +222%
Devils vs. Sharks Oct 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Ducks Oct 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Utah Oct 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ukraine vs. Azerbaijan end in a draw? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Raiders vs. Chiefs Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Oct 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Raptors Oct 11 $1 +$10 +1010%
Kings vs. Golden Knights Oct 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $57 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 60d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers $1 64d
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY Dignitas $0 65d
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY Dignitas $0 65d
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY Dignitas $1 65d
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON - Game 2 Winner BUY Dignitas $1 65d
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON - Game 2 Winner BUY Dignitas $1 65d
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON $1 66d
LoL: Dignitas vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 13¢ $1 66d
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner BUY Apex Mission Impossible 13¢ $1 67d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers BUY BNK FearX Youth $1 68d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers SELL BNK FearX Youth 35¢ $3 68d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers BUY BNK FearX Youth 14¢ $1 68d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers $1 68d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League SELL Gen.G Global Academy 11¢ $3 68d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League BUY Gen.G Global Academy $1 68d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League BUY Gen.G Global Academy $1 68d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League BUY Gen.G Global Academy $0 68d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G Global Academy 100¢ $11 68d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League SELL Gen.G Global Academy 20¢ $6 68d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League SELL Gen.G Global Academy 22¢ $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.59 · official $55.59 (match) · 74 history records