Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5e…de5f crypto 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,699 (-16%) realized −$1,704 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%76W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day80.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$403
7 days−$407
14 days−$804
30 days−$2,691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,684
other 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -48.0% -52.9% 27% 27% -50.2%
≤30d 244 -12.6% -20.9% 31% 28% -35.7%
≤90d 244 -12.6% -20.9% 31% 28% -35.7%
all 244 -12.6% -20.9% 31% 28% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 28% -35.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 26% -41.9%
15% -35.4% 22% -47.5%
20% -41.7% 20% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$33 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1,704
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses76 / 168
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)244 / 247
History coverage20d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day80.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 16¢ 15¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Down 8¢ 10¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $72 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $167 −$92 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $122 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $92 +$93 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $337 −$199 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $58 −$33 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $9 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $72 +$55 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $59 +$21 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $35 −$17 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $47 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $28 +$19 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $73 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$201 +560%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$31 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $14 −$13 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $18 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$24 -89%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $72 −$70 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $62 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $59 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.38 · official $47.38 (match) · 1736 history records