Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5d…f085 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 35% -14.5%
≤30d 43 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 35% -15.4%
≤90d 43 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 35% -15.4%
all 43 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 35% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 35% -15.4%
10% -36.5% 23% -23.5%
15% -42.6% 14% -30.9%
20% -48.2% 12% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage21d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$24 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$10 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$9 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$10 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$12 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$9 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$9 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$10 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$17 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $36 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $11 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records