Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5d…20a3 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$98 (+8%) realized +$104 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,076
other 1% −$10
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +42.4% +28.8% 31% 31% +76.3%
≤30d 32 +42.4% +28.8% 31% 31% +76.3%
≤90d 32 +42.4% +28.8% 31% 31% +76.3%
all 32 +42.4% +28.8% 31% 31% +76.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.8% 31% +76.3%
10% +16.5% 31% +59.5%
15% +5.2% 28% +44.0%
20% -5.1% 28% +29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +95% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$36 · ×5.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$95 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $106 +$1,275 +1197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$329 +1237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$66 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $53 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.25 · official $4.25 (match) · 51 history records