Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5b…7796 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$311 (+1%) realized +$324 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$1,150per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$438
7 days−$1,718
14 days−$1,718
30 days−$2,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$4,078
other 17% +$729
culture 8% −$2,935
tech 2% −$1,093
sports 1% −$652
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 33% -39.9%
≤30d 11 -10.0% -18.5% 27% 27% -45.2%
≤90d 29 -41.9% -47.4% 17% 17% -68.3%
all 45 -5.5% -14.5% 27% 27% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 27% -9.3%
10% -22.7% 27% -18.0%
15% -30.2% 27% -25.9%
20% -37.0% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,004) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +29% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,245 vs −$812 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$324
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1,150
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $220 $207 −$13 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $150 −$146 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $298 −$292 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $515 −$505 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$213 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $930 −$912 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $984 −$957 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $989 +$922 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $180 +$794 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $857 −$836 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $810 −$120 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $831 −$831 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $637 −$494 -78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $673 −$404 -60%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 21 $1,193 −$1,193 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 21 $506 −$506 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $3,353 −$2,225 -66%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 21 $992 −$479 -48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $805 −$35 -4%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 11 $2,115 −$2,064 -98%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 07 $857 −$685 -80%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $990 +$803 +81%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Apr 04 $1,093 −$1,093 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? Apr 04 $680 −$680 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $1,529 −$1,529 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Apr 04 $4,516 −$4,516 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $2,901 −$1,406 -48%
BitBoy convicted? Apr 01 $540 +$561 +104%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $1,837 −$1,459 -79%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 13 $812 −$587 -72%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $686 −$168 -24%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 09 $999 +$642 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $594 −$390 -66%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $902 −$150 -17%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 05 $1,049 −$595 -57%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 05 $600 −$330 -55%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 05 $600 −$485 -81%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $4,386 +$1,804 +41%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? Mar 02 $500 +$500 +100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $998 −$389 -39%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $1,000 −$233 -23%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $1,004 +$3,560 +354%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $4,721 +$13,031 +276%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $643 +$2,782 +432%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $1,000 +$1,326 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $225 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $298 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $209 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $306 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $303 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $134 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $795 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $984 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $989 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $974 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $175 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $857 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $690 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $564 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $246 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $831 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? SELL Yes 3¢ $143 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $637 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $269 52d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $5 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $1 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $0 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $0 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $2 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $0 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $0 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $0 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $5 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.76 · official $215.56 · 427 history records