Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e59…51f2 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-10%) realized −$36 · open +$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$44
other 36% +$25
crypto 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-86.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -84.5% -86.0% 11% 11% -26.7%
≤30d 9 -84.5% -86.0% 11% 11% -26.7%
≤90d 9 -84.5% -86.0% 11% 11% -26.7%
all 9 -84.5% -86.0% 11% 11% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.0% 11% -26.7%
10% -87.3% 11% -33.7%
15% -88.5% 11% -40.1%
20% -89.7% 0% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$10 · ×4.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $35 $64 +$29 (+83%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 100¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+43%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+113%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 97¢ $15 $35 +$20 (+137%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Sweden 10¢ 30¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+200%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $111 +$44 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $30 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $15 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 10¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 19¢ $13 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 41¢ $25 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 20¢ $26 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $5 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 8h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $155 8h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $111 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.93 · official $265.93 · 20 history records