Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e59…6019 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$34
world 7% $0
other 7% −$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -54.7% -59.0% 18% 9% -39.6%
≤30d 11 -54.7% -59.0% 18% 9% -39.6%
≤90d 11 -54.7% -59.0% 18% 9% -39.6%
all 11 -54.7% -59.0% 18% 9% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.0% 9% -39.6%
10% ← realistic here -62.9% 0% -45.4%
15% -66.5% 0% -50.6%
20% -69.8% 0% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.06 · official $24.06 (match) · 47 history records