Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e58…cc45 crypto 652 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$795 (-2%) realized −$795 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate93%607W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$96
14 days−$115
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$941
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.7% +4.7% 100% 83% +4.7%
≤30d 204 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 13% -13.2%
≤90d 652 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 12% -11.6%
all 652 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 12% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 12% -11.6%
10% -18.7% 6% -20.1%
15% -26.5% 4% -27.8%
20% -33.7% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$68 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses607 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)652 / 652
History coverage56d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 652 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$23 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $92 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $32 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $45 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $55 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1277 history records