Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9e58…682e crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 434d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%31W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$27
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
other 1% −$2
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 90% 0% -9.2%
all 33 +0.6% -9.0% 94% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

434d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses31 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage434d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? No 99¢ 82¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 14? Feb 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 14? Feb 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 23? Jan 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 22? Jan 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 23? Jan 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 15? Dec 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Dec 15 $20 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 03 $6,000 −$28 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,400 on October 30? Oct 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Oct 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 11 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $25 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 20 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 29 $22 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $18 57m
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? BUY No 99¢ $15 59m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $23 52d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $10 52d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $12 88d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 88d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 88d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $10 115d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 99¢ $10 115d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 115d
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 14? BUY No 100¢ $11 152d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 14? BUY No 99¢ $11 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 152d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 175d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 23? BUY No 99¢ $10 175d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 22? BUY No 100¢ $11 175d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 182d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 100¢ $12 218d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $35 218d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $13 218d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 94¢ $2,295 224d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 94¢ $15 224d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 94¢ $604 224d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $20 225d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $12 225d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,933 226d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $35 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.26 · official $30.26 (match) · 74 history records