Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e57…6688 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$205 (-29%) realized −$204 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -47.3% -52.4% 17% 17% -54.6%
≤30d 6 -47.3% -52.4% 17% 17% -54.6%
≤90d 6 -47.3% -52.4% 17% 17% -54.6%
all 6 -47.3% -52.4% 17% 17% -54.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.4% 17% -54.6%
10% -56.9% 17% -59.0%
15% -61.1% 17% -62.9%
20% -64.9% 0% -66.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$60 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 55¢ 55¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $101 −$44 -43%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $102 −$21 -21%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $117 −$115 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $76 −$43 -57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $79 −$78 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $76 +$28 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $152 7m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 34¢ $57 9m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $101 54m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 40¢ $80 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $102 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $117 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 25¢ $33 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $76 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $79 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 78¢ $104 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $76 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.64 · official $148.64 (match) · 11 history records