Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9e56…616f other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$596 (+4%) realized +$596 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,662per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$511
world 23% −$2,707
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.2% -4.0% 50% 50% -22.0%
≤30d 6 +6.2% -4.0% 50% 50% -22.0%
≤90d 6 +6.2% -4.0% 50% 50% -22.0%
all 6 +6.2% -4.0% 50% 50% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 50% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 33% -29.4%
15% -21.5% 17% -36.2%
20% -29.2% 17% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$519 vs −$1,250 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$596
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2,662
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,699 −$2,707 -73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6,617 −$973 -15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,721 +$958 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,718 −$71 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $651 +$511 +78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $565 +$86 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $994 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 9¢ $992 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,705 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 31¢ $2,705 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $2,939 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 31¢ $2,938 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $3,678 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $2,721 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,647 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $556 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,163 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $651 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $497 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $69 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records