Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e54…23dc crypto 1495 markets active 5h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate85%1292W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
other 0% +$1
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -46.6% -51.7% 48% 31% -42.6%
≤30d 113 -15.1% -23.2% 74% 44% -17.9%
≤90d 295 -6.8% -15.7% 78% 48% -13.8%
all 1515 -1.4% -10.8% 85% 22% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 22% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1292 / 223
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1515 / 1495
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1515 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -807%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -663%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -878%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -606%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -445%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -839%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -771%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -683%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -683%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -995%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -781%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -528%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -847%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -742%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -645%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 95¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records