Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e51…c6aa crypto 475 markets active 0h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$968 (-5%) realized −$918 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate81%383W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$31
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 +0.2% -9.3% 84% 34% -9.8%
≤30d 439 -2.5% -11.8% 82% 32% -10.8%
≤90d 439 -2.5% -11.8% 82% 32% -10.8%
all 473 -3.7% -12.9% 81% 32% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 32% -14.1%
10% -21.2% 18% -22.3%
15% -28.8% 12% -29.8%
20% -35.8% 7% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$36 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$918
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses383 / 90
Open positions2
Markets (closed)473 / 475
History coverage226d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$23 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 1183 history records