Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e50…21d2 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$7
other 34% −$2
sports 20% −$13
crypto 5% $0
finance 4% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.2% -11.5% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -12.2% -20.6% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 41 -14.3% -22.4% 15% 5% -10.3%
all 57 -12.2% -20.5% 11% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 4% -10.2%
10% -28.1% 2% -18.8%
15% -35.1% 2% -26.6%
20% -41.4% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage117d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 96¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -23%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $60 $0 -0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $2 $0 +12%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $123 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 +2%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $64 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Flyers Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $1 $0 -30%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $135 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Heat Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 08 $38 −$5 -13%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $70 $0 -0%
Dota 2: OG vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $70 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 25 $1 +$1 +79%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $76 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 96¢ $2 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 16d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 78¢ $1 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 16d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 16d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 16d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 16d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 99¢ $60 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 99¢ $60 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 23d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 32d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 32d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 32d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 32d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 33d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.54 · official $7.54 (match) · 157 history records