Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e4d…a1aa world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 29% +$13
sports 12% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% +$1
finance 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 34 +0.5% -9.1% 26% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -8.4%
10% -17.8% 3% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.14 per $1 lost it wins $5.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage303d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $75 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $38 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $9 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $36 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $42 +$12 +30%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $41 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $2 $0 -23%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $42 −$1 -2%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 19 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 15h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $17 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $35 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $6 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $5 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $11 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $16 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $38 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $38 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $7 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $34 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $29 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $29 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $36 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records