Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9e4c…745a
weather · 36 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$98 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$110 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$116
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)26 / 36
History coverage9d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 10 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$110
14 days+$110
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 22¢ 20¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 53¢ 100¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+89%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 13¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes $7 $0 −$6 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +164%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Cilic Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $42 +$43 +104%
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Eala Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$15 +144%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 10 $10 +$9 +87%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$27 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $14 +$9 +65%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$44
sports 38% +$65
weather 9% −$8
world 3% +$2
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 13¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 38h
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $42 47h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 53¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 38¢ $2 2d
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Eala BUY Eala 44¢ $5 2d
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Cilic BUY Cilic 54¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 40¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $25 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 78¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 79¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY No 68¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 7? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 64¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 62¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 76¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? BUY No 72¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 71¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 68¢ $3 5d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 19¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 58% +35.1%
≤30d 26 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 58% +35.1%
≤90d 26 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 58% +35.1%
all 26 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 58% +35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 58% +35.1%
10% -19.9% 58% +22.2%
15% -27.7% 42% +10.4%
20% -34.7% 31% -0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.09 · official $116.09 (match) · 67 history records