Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9E 0x9e4c…06f8 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$71 (-3%) realized −$49 · open −$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$114per market

Trades / day30.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-8.7%	-17.4%	41%	41%	-17.7%
≤30d	17	-8.7%	-17.4%	41%	41%	-17.7%
≤90d	17	-8.7%	-17.4%	41%	41%	-17.7%
all	17	-8.7%	-17.4%	41%	41%	-17.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.4%	41%	-17.7%
10% ← realistic here	-25.3%	41%	-25.6%
15%	-32.5%	41%	-32.8%
20%	-39.1%	41%	-39.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late -3% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$135 vs −$111 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$77

Realized−$49

Unrealized−$22

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$114

Trades / day30.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET	Down	33¢	26¢	$100	$77	−$22 (-23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 19	$198	−$198	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 19	$141	−$133	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 19	$158	−$150	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 19	$252	−$243	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 19	$211	+$241	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 19	$146	+$163	+112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 19	$132	+$163	+123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 19	$52	−$50	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 19	$104	+$130	+126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 19	$23	−$22	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET	Jun 19	$89	+$133	+150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 19	$46	−$45	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET	Jun 18	$167	−$159	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 18	$76	−$72	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 18	$44	−$42	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 18	$49	+$56	+116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 18	$52	+$57	+109%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$1	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$103	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$198	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$141	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$158	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$252	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$452	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$197	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$308	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$146	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$132	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Down	78¢	$234	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$222	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$89	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$46	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$165	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$76	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$44	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$105	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$32	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$15	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$110	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$52	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.37 · official $83.44 · 33 history records