Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9e4a…5ba6 sports 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 754d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$165 (-1%) realized −$160 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%128W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$407
14 days+$576
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,023
other 19% −$737
crypto 4% −$146
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +20.0% +8.5% 44% 44% +2.9%
≤30d 68 +9.2% -1.2% 41% 40% -10.5%
≤90d 185 +6.5% -3.7% 43% 42% -5.1%
all 264 -0.6% -10.0% 48% 36% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 36% -8.2%
10% -18.6% 35% -17.0%
15% -26.5% 35% -25.0%
20% -33.7% 35% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$59 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

754d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses128 / 136
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions2
Markets (closed)264 / 272
History coverage754d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 43¢ 36¢ $77 $66 −$12 (-15%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 36¢ 44¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 21 $53 +$58 +110%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $99 −$98 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $75 +$114 +152%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$74 +180%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$91 +186%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 18 $49 +$109 +223%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 18 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $135 +$164 +121%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$77 -75%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $64 +$86 +133%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 17 $75 −$74 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $60 +$90 +150%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $29 +$41 +140%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $63 +$100 +158%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $79 −$78 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$124 +163%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $77 −$76 -98%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$89 +172%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $69 +$111 +162%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$9 +33%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $94 +$106 +113%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $36 +$64 +178%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Wi Jun 15 $27 +$197 +740%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $62 +$98 +158%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $88 +$118 +134%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $72 +$78 +109%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $91 +$109 +119%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 36¢ $33 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 43¢ $79 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $36 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $46 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $53 5h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $71 6h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 38¢ $55 8h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 38¢ $6 9h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 38¢ $4 10h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 38¢ $12 11h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $99 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ja BUY 18¢ $19 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 17¢ $12 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 23h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $3 27h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $3 27h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $69 30h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 35¢ $41 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $49 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $59 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 37¢ $45 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 2d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $49 2d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 36¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.45 · official $104.45 (match) · 702 history records