Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e49…421e sports 209 markets active 5h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-1%) realized −$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%114W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$89
14 days−$213
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$286
other 6% −$86
crypto 2% −$5
world 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -16.2% -24.2% 43% 24% -13.3%
≤30d 119 +14.3% +3.4% 55% 34% -9.8%
≤90d 207 +11.4% +0.8% 55% 39% -11.5%
all 207 +11.4% +0.8% 55% 39% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 39% -11.5%
10% -8.8% 33% -20.0%
15% -17.6% 26% -27.7%
20% -25.7% 20% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses114 / 93
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions2
Markets (closed)207 / 209
History coverage48d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Shimabukuro 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Bergs 50¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $201 +$43 +21%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $57 −$39 -68%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $201 +$46 +23%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $199 +$4 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $35 −$12 -35%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 +$13 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $169 +$11 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$3 -12%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $141 +$12 +8%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $10 −$3 -31%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $101 −$50 -49%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $10 +$11 +109%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $749 −$115 -15%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 -46%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $355 +$27 +8%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 08 $10 −$1 -5%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 08 $8 +$4 +50%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 08 $10 −$6 -59%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $8 +$3 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $242 +$62 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $395 −$52 -13%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $7 $0 -5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $19 −$13 -67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $5 −$4 -74%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $1 $0 +44%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 06 $16 +$11 +67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $6 +$7 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $276 +$14 +5%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $20 −$8 -40%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $10 +$9 +90%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 04 $101 −$97 -96%
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) SELL Shapovalov 48¢ $1 5h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) BUY Shapovalov 50¢ $1 5h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 50¢ $1 5h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Shimabukuro 56¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $6 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $9 9h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 68¢ $10 10h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 82¢ $201 32h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Las Vegas Aces 10¢ $18 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 17¢ $17 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 37¢ $4 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 39¢ $2 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 39¢ $2 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 40¢ $5 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 40¢ $4 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 42¢ $4 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 41¢ $4 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $5 34h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 61¢ $10 36h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 78¢ $101 43h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 84¢ $100 43h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 94¢ $80 44h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 94¢ $94 44h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 94¢ $5 44h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 4¢ $1 44h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 31¢ $9 44h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 38¢ $11 44h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 33¢ $3 44h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 35¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.84 · official $1.84 (match) · 712 history records