Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9e49…d3d8 crypto 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,998 (+8%) realized +$3,687 · open +$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%33W / 59L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,628
7 days+$4,226
14 days+$4,226
30 days+$4,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$4,452
other 11% +$341
sports 3% −$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +177.4% +150.9% 57% 57% +26.3%
≤30d 92 +53.2% +38.6% 36% 28% -0.8%
≤90d 92 +53.2% +38.6% 36% 28% -0.8%
all 92 +53.2% +38.6% 36% 28% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.6% 28% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here +25.3% 25% -10.3%
15% +13.2% 21% -19.0%
20% +2.1% 18% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$519) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +113% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$106 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,581
Realized+$3,687
Unrealized+$311
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses33 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)92 / 96
History coverage23d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 69¢ $1,073 $1,350 +$276 (+26%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $175 $204 +$29 (+17%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $372 +$129 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $381 +$227 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $307 −$298 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $290 +$610 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $348 −$48 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $90 +$810 +901%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$198 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $270 +$330 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 17 $204 −$151 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $405 −$405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $361 −$361 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3,927 −$1,113 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$246 +458%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $391 +$509 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $373 +$527 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $282 +$344 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $320 +$580 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $297 +$603 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $344 +$556 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$861 +2230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $151 +$299 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$394 +708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$379 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 01 $170 −$98 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 01 $107 +$38 +36%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $587 +$30 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 01 $519 −$266 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $46 −$40 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5AM ET Jun 01 $514 −$36 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8AM ET Jun 01 $353 −$9 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $332 −$15 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1AM ET Jun 01 $400 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1AM ET Jun 01 $400 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $168 −$59 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $800 +$93 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $718 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $219 −$127 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $73 −$35 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2AM ET Jun 01 $7 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $800 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12AM ET Jun 01 $400 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $44 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $141 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $125 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $127 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $127 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $127 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $124 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $91 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $91 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $96 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,580.74 · official $1,580.94 (match) · 884 history records