Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e49…8364 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$1
politics 28% −$1
world 17% +$5
sports 6% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 6 -2.7% -12.0% 17% 0% -10.7%
all 44 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage267d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 64¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $52 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Nov 29 $2 +$2 +130%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Nov 28 $1 $0 -26%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $16 −$2 -13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 04 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $23 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 02 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in September 2025 Oct 27 $1 −$1 -39%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 17 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will The Life of a Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the top Spotify album f Oct 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $57 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $11 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $3 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $37 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $52 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $42 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $2 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $11 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $21 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $21 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $17 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $16 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $17 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 40h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 8d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 42¢ $12 86d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 202d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 202d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 204d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 48¢ $14 210d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.98 · official $59.98 (match) · 180 history records