Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9e48…b8dc sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$325 (-72%) realized −$325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$271
other 33% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$59 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage186d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 32¢ 32¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $19 −$19 -99%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Foggia: Xinyu Gao vs Darya Astakhova Jun 01 $29 −$29 -98%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $97 −$94 -98%
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5 Dec 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 32¢ $28 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 4h
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 55¢ $19 16d
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 58¢ $10 16d
Foggia: Xinyu Gao vs Darya Astakhova BUY Xinyu Gao 46¢ $29 18d
Raptors vs. Celtics BUY Raptors 17¢ $97 75d
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5 BUY Under 51¢ $120 186d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.31 · official $28.31 (match) · 9 history records