Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e48…c701 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$389
7 days−$314
14 days−$282
30 days−$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$194
other 46% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -35.5% -41.7% 31% 31% -35.6%
≤30d 41 -13.4% -21.7% 37% 37% -31.8%
≤90d 42 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 38% -28.5%
all 42 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 38% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 38% -28.5%
10% -27.7% 38% -35.3%
15% -34.7% 29% -41.6%
20% -41.1% 24% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage32d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $42 +$27 +65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $200 −$158 -79%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $92 −$91 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $35 −$2 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $49 −$7 -14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $39 −$15 -39%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $47 −$28 -60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$22 +88%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +58%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $62 +$24 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$9 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $37 +$15 +40%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$21 +200%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 +$4 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $44 +$53 +121%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $29 +$15 +53%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $25 −$4 -15%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$8 +194%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 +$25 +478%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +112%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $50 +$32 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $69 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $69 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $42 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $200 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $68 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $33 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $34 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $24 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 6h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $42 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 56¢ $42 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $24 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 42¢ $24 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $39 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $39 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $19 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $19 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $25 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.48 · official $88.49 (match) · 123 history records