Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9e46…3cf4 other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,822 (+1%) realized +$1,818 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$1,713per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,765now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$23
14 days−$100
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,344
politics 40% −$126
sports 7% +$573
economics 3% −$8
culture 2% −$6
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +3.1% -6.7% 9% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 116 -6.8% -15.7% 7% 5% -9.9%
all 148 +5.5% -4.6% 17% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 13% -8.9%
10% -13.7% 12% -17.6%
15% -22.1% 11% -25.6%
20% -29.7% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,683) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$12 · ×10.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,765
Realized+$1,818
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,713
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,413 $1,412 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $348 $353 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,561 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,635 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $3,275 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $6,031 −$9 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,986 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,634 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $4,840 −$6 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $791 +$3 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,683 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $4,010 −$5 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,862 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $4,438 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,758 −$3 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $6,495 −$7 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,444 −$3 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $47 +$66 +140%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $67 +$111 +165%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,731 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,892 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 19 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $3,022 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $2,821 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 09 $1,436 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,575 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,362 −$4 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,708 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $6,349 −$7 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $7,696 −$8 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,673 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $3,148 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,413 45m
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,559 24h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,561 24h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,632 47h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,635 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,662 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,664 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,633 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,636 3d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,648 3d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,649 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $348 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,631 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,633 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,619 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,622 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,671 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,674 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,632 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,634 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,643 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,645 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,639 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,641 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,652 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,599 11d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,601 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $59 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,697 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,764.93 · official $1,764.93 (match) · 529 history records